The analysis by Anima Confindustria's Research Office highlights a weak outlook: forecasts for declining revenue and exports, and suffering margins.
The second half of 2025 begins with a less than optimistic outlook for Italian mechanical engineering companies. The results of Anima Confindustria's latest survey of member companies show widespread signs of a slowdown, with estimates in several cases predicting a reduction in revenue of more than 5% compared to the same period in 2024. Approximately one in four companies expects a significant decline, while growth prospects appear limited. This trend reflects the climate of market uncertainty and the operational difficulties many companies are facing in recent months.
The export analysis captures a snapshot of the situation, characterized by signs of contraction. Only a small portion of companies anticipate significant increases in cross-border sales, while forecasts of stability or decline prevail. Specifically, 27.5% of the sample reported a possible decline of up to 5%, confirming that the slowdown in international demand continues to weigh on the sector's performance and restrict growth opportunities in foreign markets.
Margins remain a critical issue: over half of the companies surveyed have seen a decline in the past year, with a significant portion reporting a reduction of more than 5%. Conversely, only a minority reported seeing improvements, a sign that pressure on margins remains widespread. The causes are linked to a combination of factors ranging from rising energy costs to the volatility of raw materials to geopolitical tensions, all of which are squeezing profitability and reducing investment capacity. Global geopolitical instability, with ongoing conflicts and escalating trade tensions between the world's major economies, is severely impacting supply stability and cost unpredictability, making operational management increasingly complex for companies in the mechanical engineering sector.
"In the current scenario," emphasized Pietro Almici, President of Anima Confindustria, "the Italian mechanical engineering industry is caught in a tight spot characterized on the one hand by geopolitical uncertainty, which weighs on growth forecasts, and on the other by the unpredictable US posture and the instability of the French government. The 50% tariffs on steel products imposed by the US government deal a further blow to our trade balance in the US, which, we recall, was the primary destination for the mechanical engineering industry represented by Anima in 2024. All these factors are generating growing concern among businesses, especially on the export front, for which this translates into a reduction in foreign trade. But of greater concern is the decline in margins for most of the mechanical engineering companies represented by Anima, caused primarily by an increase in production costs."
It is therefore a priority to promote policies that favor the Italian and European industrial sectors: "For years, the EU has pursued a policy of 'ideas', without truly promoting the local manufacturing sector. Added to this is the recent agreement with the United States, the terms of which envisage hundreds of billions of euros being directed overseas. Now is the time to step back from this economic policy approach and understand whether European institutions truly have the will to support our businesses. To change direction, we need to appeal to the institutions to support the manufacturing sector and protect the production and trade of our products."
ANIMA Confindustria is the industrial trade organization within Confindustria that represents companies in the mechanical and related sectors, a sector that employs 221,700 people, generates a turnover of €55.5 billion, and accounts for 59% of exports/turnover (data from the Anima Research Office). The macro-sectors represented by ANIMA are: construction and infrastructure; material handling and logistics; food production; energy production; industrial production; safety and environment.
