The United States and Gulf countries could suffer a sharp setback due to new tariffs and geopolitical tensions. Germany remains stable, China collapses.
In 2025, Italian mechanical engineering exports grew by 3.2%, in line with the overall increase in national exports of 3.3%. This result shows Italy's superior performance compared to its main European partners, but it does not indicate the sector's complete solidity. Growth is driven by specific geographic areas, while the domestic market remains stagnant.
A significant share of the export surplus is concentrated in the United States , which confirmed its position as the leading destination for Anima mechanical engineering in 2025 with over 4.9 billion euros (+12.3%), but the recent announcement by the White House of additional duties on aluminum and steel articles, some copper articles and some aluminum and steel derivatives could have a strong impact on the export of mechanical engineering represented by Anima Confindustria.
"The 2025 growth reflects a geographical redistribution of demand, with concentration in a few key markets and weakening in others," says Pietro Almici , president of Anima Confindustria. "The data must therefore be interpreted carefully, especially in light of the current macroeconomic environment, characterized by declining industrial expectations and rising costs, but above all by a climate of uncertainty prevailing internationally. The situation in the Gulf countries, a region of great interest for the Italian mechanical engineering industry, could suffer a significant setback; similarly, the recent White House announcement of changes to tariffs on copper, aluminum, and steel products could have a significant impact on our exports."
The sentiment among mechanical engineering companies is moving in this direction: according to the latest survey of member companies, approximately 40% of the sample expects a decline in exports in the first half of the year. Companies are particularly concerned about the future of the American market and the current situation in the Middle East.
Precisely because 2025 confirmed the strength of mechanical engineering exports, the current international scenario is even more critical; however, the sector maintains a structured presence and competitive capacity on global markets, starting with the Persian Gulf area, also through results such as the Memorandum signed between Anima and the Italian-Arab Chamber of Commerce to strengthen internationalization opportunities. Internationally, tensions in the Gulf countries therefore pose a high risk, both for exports and for the potential increase in energy costs —up to €21 billion for Italian companies (Confindustria Flash Economic Outlook, April 2026).
The EU27 countries remain the main market for mechanical engineering, as highlighted by analyses by the Statistics Office of Anima Confindustria: +2.4% and over €17 billion. Germany remains Europe's leading trading partner, with €3.7 billion and essentially stable (+0.2%) through 2024. France declined by 0.8%, while Spain recorded the greatest growth (+11.2%). Poland (€1.16 billion and +4.3%) climbs to seventh place in the Italian export rankings, surpassing China (-14.1%).
Considering Asia and the Middle East , exports are concentrated in a few high-value countries and strategic categories. Saudi Arabia rises to the top destination market, with €1.4 billion in exports and a 4.3% increase compared to 2024. China falls to €1.13 billion, and Singapore collapses (-46.5%), while the greatest growth in 2025 is concentrated in the United Arab Emirates (+27.1%) and Qatar (+18.1%).
Elsewhere in the world, Algeria (+70.6%) and Australia (+10.8%) saw significant growth, joining the top 20 destinations for Italian mechanical engineering. South America also remains a key region. Further strengthening Anima's strategic positioning in South America are: the launch of the EU-Mercosur agreement on May 1st, strongly supported by the government and intended to consolidate one of the largest integrated trade areas globally, with the progressive elimination of tariffs on 91% of products; the Confindustria mission to Argentina and Brazil from September 7th to 11th on industry and energy; Anima's joint participation in the "ROG.e Energy" trade fair; and the Memorandum of Understanding with Adimra (the Association of Metallurgical Industrialists of the Argentine Republic) signed in June 2025.
Finally, turning to imports , Germany remains the leading country of origin with 3.99 billion euros (+9.4%), followed by China and the United States . In terms of geographical areas, the EU27 absorbs the predominant share (56.4% of the total), while East Asia emerges as the second largest supply hub (Processing by the Anima Statistics & Market Intelligence Office based on Istat data).
" The mechanical engineering industry today finds itself in a very critical and uncertain phase , in which export growth is insufficient to offset the structural issues related to energy costs and the lack of a real industrial policy," concludes President Almici. "In a scenario that remains completely unpredictable , a reduction in energy costs is essential, and it is a priority for European institutions to put manufacturing back at the center , to prevent the current tensions from leading us toward a deeper industrial crisis."
ANIMA Confindustria is the trade organization within Confindustria that represents companies in the mechanical and related sectors, a sector that employs 224,006 people, generates a turnover of €59.1 billion, and accounts for approximately 60% of exports (2025 forecast by the Anima Research Office). The major sectors represented by ANIMA are: construction and infrastructure; material handling and logistics; food production; energy production; industrial production; and safety and environment.
Ucimu: orders index for the second quarter of 2026 still down (-25.8%); foreign orders (-15.3%); dom
Riccardo Rosa, president of UCIMU: "We'll have to wait until the next few months to see the full effects of the hyper-depreciation, but we're very confident this measure will last until September 2028." In the second quarter of 2026, the machine tool orders index compiled by the UCIMU-SISTEMI PER PRODURRE Study & Business Culture Centre recorded a decline of -25.8% compared to the April-June 2025 period . In absolute value, the index stood at 47.8 (base 100 in 2021). The result expresses the difficulties that Italian machine tool manufacturers have encountered both on the domestic and foreign markets. In particular, orders collected from abroad decreased by -15.3% compared to the second quarter of 2025, for an absolute value of 63.2. Order intake in Italy also declined , falling 38.7% compared to the same period of the previous year. The absolute value of the index stood at 33.1. Riccardo Rosa, president of UCIMU-SISTEMI PER PRODURRE, stated: “The uncertainty of the geopolitical context—shaken by wars, the Hormuz crisis, and the decidedly worrying attitude of the President of the United States toward international politics—has profoundly undermined the already precarious balance in which the industry found itself operating.” "The decline in international deliveries, given the current situation, is understandable, and we expected it. Business has slowed, but, as is our custom, we've tried to focus our offerings on those areas less directly affected by conflicts and critical issues, diversifying our product offerings wherever possible." "It is certain ," continued President Riccardo Rosa , " that the investment figures and values once ensured by the automotive industry cannot be replaced by the demand expressed by other sectors, however dynamic, such as defense, aerospace, and energy. For this reason, once again, we ask our representatives in Europe to reconsider their decision and adopt the principle of technological neutrality when defining automotive development plans. This approach would allow the industry, and its entire supply chain, to properly manage the ongoing transition, not only respecting the environment but also safeguarding, where possible, employment." Domestically, businesses awaited clarifications on the hyper-depreciation program to confirm their purchasing intentions. Since June 12th, the day all the operational steps were completed, the hyper-depreciation program has been bearing fruit. We immediately noticed a change in attitude among Italian users: orders are starting to arrive. "We'll have to wait a few more months, however, for the effect to be fully reflected in our data, but we're definitely confident. This is also because, in the meantime, we have data from the Ministry of Business and Made in Italy, which, as of July 9th, reported the submission of 7,000 communications on the GSE platform, worth €2.5 billion." MIMIT deserves great credit for having established a multi-year term for this incentive. Its effectiveness until September 2028 should ensure thoughtful planning of investments in new machine tools and production technologies by Italian customers, also allowing us manufacturers to plan our production activities over the medium term. "The hope ," concluded Riccardo Rosa , " is to soon see the Italian market return to the levels it experienced in 2021-2022, when it was worth over €6 billion. This is also because our manufacturing industry needs to innovate to remain competitive in an international context where digital and AI are completely reshaping the rules of the game."
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